От	Аркан
К	Мазила
Дата	19.02.2008 20:34:28
Рубрики	Современность; Политек;

Сколько вообще может быть косовых?

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По факту имеем:
Абхазию
Южную Осетию
Приднестровье
Карабах
Тайвань
Северный Кипр
Иракский Курдистан
Сомали россыпью
Дарфур
Западная Сахара
Тамил-Илам
Вазиристан
Кашмир

Потенциально имеем:
Шиитский Ирак
Пуштунистан (?)
Арабистан в Иране (?)
Бирма
Белужистан
Огаден
Нигерия

Маловероятно:
расспад Бельгии
баски
Корсика
Северная Ирландия
Шотландия
республика Сербскуя
Бачка (?)
албанская Македония (?)

кого забыл?

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От	Presscenter
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:41:27

Ну есть еще

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бретонский сеппаратизм, а в Испании тема сепаратизма страной басков не ограничена. В принципе все зависит от того кто сколько бабок во что вложит. Терпение и труд, как говорится, всех перетрут.

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От	Юрий Лямин
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:36:21

Кстати, Зап.Сахара определенного межд. статуса вообще не имеет.

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Ее аннексию Марокко ООН, насколкьо помню не признал и требует проведения референдума о определении статуса.

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От	Аркан
К	Юрий Лямин (19.02.2008 22:36:21)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:58:16

Там есть свободная зона, то есть по факту вполне незалежная территория (-)

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От	Hokum
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:32:18

Чечня, Дагестан, далее со всеми остановками (-)

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От	Аркан
К	Hokum (19.02.2008 22:32:18)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:59:26

Это с какого боку? Ингушетия еще туда-сюда, там неспокойно, а в Дагестане что ? (-)

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От	Юрий Лямин
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:27:42

Еще Ачех и т.д. в Индонезии, Ассам, Нагаленд и т.д. в Индии...

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Районы населенные майя на юге Мексики, туареги в Мали и Нигере, мусульмане на юге Таиланда и на о.Минданао Филиппин, часть шиитов в некоторых районах Йемена, некоторые районы в Анголе, Сенегале, Гане, ДР Конго и т.д.

В общем очень много где, то что я перечислил - это только то что я сумел вспомнить из тех районов где реально шли или идут боевые действия\совершаются теракты. В некоторых больших странах, вроде Индии есть сразу несколько таких сепаратистских районов.

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От	PAV605
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 21:49:32

Вообще это возможно где угодно

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В любой стране где есть меньшинство компактно проживающее в локальном большинстве. Всегда можно устроить по косовскому сценарию. Подпитка местных сепаратистов-радикалов, оранжевые технологии , провокация власти и меньшинства, травля властей на международом уровне и в прессе, обвинения в геноциде, "гуманитарная операция", очередной "исключительный случай". В общем если очень хочется, то можно. Исключение могут составлять лишь страны типа Китая. Хотя и ему бы не гарантировал. Кто знает что будет лет эдак через ... СССР тоже когда-то незыблемым казался.

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От	СОР
К	PAV605 (19.02.2008 21:49:32)
Дата	20.02.2008 07:15:14

У Китая Тайвань, Тибет и еще кто то. (-)

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От	PAV605
К	PAV605 (19.02.2008 21:49:32)
Дата	19.02.2008 22:39:41

Re: Вообще это...

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Кстати, на тему

http://shurigin.livejournal.com/137593.html

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От	PAV605
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 21:28:04

Тибет (-)

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От	Pout
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 21:02:06

Квебек. Техас

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>

>кого забыл?
(отрывки)

Эта страшилка ходила в интернете в 98 году, на фоне азиатского фин.кризиса. Там в начале об этом говорится, был текст полностью по ссылке (ушел)

http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/1186/monybomb.html


Фин кризис с крахом доллара
(отрывки)



Target 2000 / Y2K
It Couldn't Happen Here

------------------------------------

This article appeared first in the 2/97 Moneychanger, & has since been reprinted numerous times in places as far away as Australia.

I am posting it because of the economic crises in Asia and Russia. On one day in January, 1998 the Indonesian currency dropped twenty-five percent (25%), & the Korean won dropped about 30% the week before. In Indonesia shoppers surged to buy anything they could of value, stripping stores of appliances & even cooking oil. Rioters have several times violently persecuted ethnic Chinese there. In short, Asian investors have seen a decade of saving evaporate in a few months. In Russia, the last two weeks of August and first week of September 1998 took more than 66% offthe ruble's value. This is the second time in five years Russians have suffered the theft of all their wealth by a collapsing ruble.
Still Americans smugly believe, "It couldn't happen here."They maintain that in the teeth of a stock market that has already given a Dow Theory signal of a primary trend change, and has dropped 18.2% in the not-quite two months since its July high. Don't kid yourself:it is already happening here.
How do you think those Asian investors fared who bought gold? Sure, the price of gold has dropped this year, but nothing likethe ringit or won or rupiah. In their own currencies gold has appreciated mightily. Take warning from their suffering; sell you stocks & real estate, & buy some gold. Not tomorrow, but right now - before it happens here.
In April, 1993 the Russian Rouble collapsed, losing 99.9% of its value in one week. Prices rose 1,250%. It couldn't happen here? Maybe not, but if it did, here's how it might unfold.

FRIDAY
Across America it seems like an ordinary Friday. The Dow trades nervously in a 200 point range, weaker at the day's end on reports the Japanese Finance Ministry is complaining about the high dollar & being forced to digest too many US government securities. Still, the Dow closes up 8.90 points at 6,825.35. Gold jumps strongly to finish the day in New York at $380, silver at $5.25. Experts on Wall Street Week that evening are reassuring, certain that the Japanese complaints are only one more in a series of inconsequential negotiations in US-Japanese financial relations. On the way home, millions of Americans stop by the gas station & tank up at $1.38 a gallon. At the grocery store, they buy bread for $1.25, & pick up a pound of hamburger for $1.99.

THE WEEKEND
The nation's weekend is disturbed by news that Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin & Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan flew to Tokyo late Friday to confer with their Japanese counterparts about their threatened sales of US government bonds. The Japanese stonewall, insisting that the high dollar will ruin the already suffering Japanese economy, & that they can no longer afford to absorb US government debt.
Sunday's reports brings them no closer to an agreement. Finance ministers from the Asian Tigers fly to Tokyo to join the negotiations. Sunday night finds them still at an impasse.
MONDAY
By the time the markets open on Wall Street, a tidal wave of foreign orders to sell US government securities washes over the market. Panic in the bond

market spreads quickly to stocks as the Dow plunges to 3,850. The dollar falls 67%, from 115 to 38-1/3 yen as gold soars to $1,140 an ounce. Silver briefly hits $18.00, but settles at $15.75. Late in the day frantic grocery store clerks, operating under orders from corporate headquarters, begin to change prices, raising bread to $3.75 a loaf & hamburger to $6.00 a pound. By 5:00 p.m. Pacific time, a gallon of gas costs $4.14.

TUESDAY
On orders from the SEC, stock, bond, & commodity markets open an hour late. The stock selling panic turns into a stock buying panic as the Dollar collapses another 75% to 9.58 Yen & investors rush to buy anything of value. Stocks close the day at 75,670 while the US treasury bond market collapses. Gold rockets to $4,560 & silver to $95. Housewives spend their day waiting in lines at gas stations to fill up at $16.50 a gallon -- for regular. Latecomers at grocery stores feel lucky to buy bread for $15 a loaf & hamburger for $24 a pound. Grocery store shelves are nearly empty. Banks nation-wide begin to call in loans. The five largest US insurance companies announce they will not honour requests to cash in policies "until further notice."

WEDNESDAY
Food riots break out in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, & New Orleans. In Cleveland & Chicago, enraged mobs of housewives kill three Kroger store managers before police riot squads & SWAT teams can clear the buildings. In other cities, dazed shoppers are glad to find bread at $75 a loaf, but few can afford hamburger at $119.50 a pound. Coin dealers in major metropolitan centres close their doors & sneak out back entrances, leaving lines of customers blocks long. In Los Angeles, two gas station clerks are burned alive when irate customers trap them in their kiosk, shove a gas tank hose into the payment slot, fill the kiosk with High Test at $82.899 a gallon, & throw in a lit match.
The dollar drops another 80%, closing at $1.916 to the Yen. At banks, interest rates rise to 72% per day for creditworthy borrowers. Early in the day, banks began to call mortgages. At 4:00 p.m. the president declares a banking holiday.
But Wall Street is booming, with the highest Dow ever posted, 168,650. Trading in the gold market becomes frantic as gold goes crazy, flashing through the $20,000 mark to close at $22,800. Two gold traders suffered heart attacks on the trading floor, but are trodden to death by frantically trading clerks before medics can reach them. Managers of three of the nation's largest pension funds commit suicide. Silver rises even faster than gold as millions rush to spend their remaining dollars & save whatever they can. The white metal closes the day at $651 an ounce.
Under FEMA, the president takes control of all the nation's businesses & immediately shuts them down for seven days. National guard units patrol the streets. Martial law is declared

THURSDAY
With grocery stores & other businesses closed, housewives panic. Flea markets sprang up in shopping mall parking lots. Bread, when you could find it, brings $600 a loaf -- or a dime in pre-1965 silver coin. The few daring

farmers who bring in meat are asking $955 a pound for hamburger, $50 apiece for eggs. In Los Angeles, Korean truck farmers commandeer a US Army armoured personnel carrier & use it to hawk vegetables through Orange County. The president appoints Dr. Jocelyn Elders head of a commission to investigate price gouging in food stores.
Army units withdraw from Watts & cordon off the entire area, leaving it to burn. Interstates leading from New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago & other major metropolitan areas gridlock as millions of fleeing refugees run out of gas. Tent cities spring up at Interstate exchanges, patrolled by grim armed militias. The Army, with its hands full in the cities, makes no effort to control suburban, much less rural, areas. In the Southwest, border crossings are hopelessly clogged by millions of Mexicans rushing southward.
Stock & commodity traders spend Wednesday night at their desks, unable to leave their buildings on account of the mobs. When trading begins Thursday, gold opens at $182,400, while silver climbs to $7,600 an ounce. Traders briefly panic when shots are fired in the gold pit at the commodity exchange in Chicago, but calm quickly when they realise the shots come from the few remaining short sellers committing suicide. Interest rates on dollars climb to 2,880% a day, but only in the overseas markets. US banks remain closed. Brazil, Nigeria, & Mexico pay off their entire foreign debt to US banks. The dollar drops another 87.5%, & closes at $4.174 to the Yen, but the Dow posts another record high at 275,920. Advancers lead decliners by a margin of 108 to 1. The oils & retail businesses are lagging.

FRIDAY
An entire nation is in shock as the remaining millions try to escape urban areas. In Washington, police & Army units wage a pitched battle on Capitol Hill trying to defend congress against a well-armed mob. Order is restored after flame throwers are brought in, but in another part of town a mob ransacks the Federal Reserve building & leaves three hapless economists hanging on the porch.
In the markets, chaos reigns. Gold reaches $2,067,180 an ounce while silver climbs through $125,000 an ounce to close at $129,129.00. The dollar is offered at $47.30 to the yen, but nobody is buying. It loses another 91.2% of its value on Thursday. Interest rates climb to 32,639% a day, but that doesn't stop the Dow, which settles at 595,805.
At noon the President addresses the nation on radio & TV, calling for calm. He introduces Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who announces that the Government is issuing a new dollar backed by the 261 million ounces of gold in Fort Knox. Government printing presses in Washington & Fort Worth will work round the clock to overprint the old notes with new denominations. The exchange rate is fixed at one new dollar ("N$1.00") for 100,000 old dollars.
On Crossfire, Bob Dole replaces liberal Newsweek editor Eleanor Cliff as a panelist.
In Austin, the Texas legislature, acting on the Treaty of 1848, exercises its right to declare the independence of the Texas Republic.
[END]

It Couldn't Happen Here

....

Still Americans smugly believe, "It couldn't happen here."They maintain that in the teeth of a stock market that has already given a Dow Theory signal of a primary trend change, and has dropped 18.2% in the not-quite two months since its July high.

Don't kid yourself:it is already happening here.

How do you think those Asian investors fared who bought gold? Sure, the price of gold has dropped this year, but nothing like the ringit or won or rupiah. In their own currencies gold has appreciated mightily. Take warning from their suffering; sell your stocks & real estate, & buy some gold. Not tomorrow, but right now - before it happens here.

In April, 1993 the Russian Rouble collapsed, losing 99.9% of its value in one week. Prices rose 1,250%. It couldn't happen here? Maybe not, but if it did, here's how it might unfold.

FRIDAY

Across America it seems like an ordinary Friday. The Dow trades nervously in a 200 point range, weaker at the day's end on reports the Japanese Finance Ministry is complaining about the high dollar & being forced to digest too many US government securities. Still, the Dow closes up 8.90 points at 6,825.35. Gold jumps strongly to finish the day in New York at $380, silver at $5.25. Experts on Wall Street Week that evening are reassuring, certain that the Japanese complaints are only one more in a series of inconsequential negotiations in US-Japanese financial relations. On the way home, millions of Americans stop by the gas station & tank up at $1.38 a gallon. At the grocery store, they buy bread for $1.25, & pick up a pound of hamburger for $1.99.

THE WEEKEND

The nation's weekend is disturbed by news that Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin & Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan flew to Tokyo late Friday to confer with their Japanese counterparts about their threatened sales of US government bonds. The Japanese stonewall, insisting that the high dollar will ruin the already suffering Japanese economy, & that they can no longer afford to absorb US government debt. Sunday's reports brings them no closer to an agreement. Finance ministers from the Asian Tigers fly to Tokyo to join the negotiations. Sunday night finds them still at an impasse.

MONDAY

By the time the markets open on Wall Street, a tidal wave of foreign orders to sell US government securities washes over the market. Panic in the bond market spreads quickly to stocks as the Dow plunges to 3,850. The dollar falls 67%, from 115 to 38-1/3 yen as gold soars to $1,140 an ounce. Silver briefly hits $18.00, but settles at $15.75. Late in the day frantic grocery store clerks, operating under orders from corporate headquarters, begin to change prices, raising bread to $3.75 a loaf & hamburger to $6.00 a pound. By 5:00 p.m. Pacific time, a gallon of gas costs $4.14.

TUESDAY
.....

.....

FRIDAY

An entire nation is in shock as the remaining millions try to escape urban areas. In Washington, police & Army units wage a pitched battle on Capitol Hill trying to defend congress against a well-armed mob. Order is restored after flame throwers are brought in, but in another part of town a mob ransacks the Federal Reserve building & leaves three hapless economists hanging on the porch. In the markets, chaos reigns. Gold reaches $2,067,180 an ounce while silver climbs through $125,000 an ounce to close at $129,129.00. The dollar is offered at $47.30 to the yen, but nobody is buying. It loses another 91.2% of its value on Thursday. Interest rates climb to 32,639% a day, but that doesn't stop the Dow, which settles at 595,805. At noon

At noon the President addresses the nation on radio & TV, calling for calm. He introduces Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who announces that the Government is issuing a new dollar backed by the 261 million ounces of gold in Fort Knox. Government printing presses in Washington & Fort Worth will work round the clock to overprint the old notes with new denominations. The exchange rate is fixed at one new dollar ("N$1.00") for 100,000 old dollars. On Crossfire, Bob Dole replaces liberal Newsweek editor Eleanor Cliff as a panelist. In Austin, the Texas legislature, acting on the Treaty of 1848, exercises its right to declare the independence of the Texas Republic.

[END]


http://situation.ru/

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От	Chestnut
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 20:34:28)
Дата	19.02.2008 20:53:52

Re: Сколько вообще...

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>Маловероятно:
>расспад Бельгии

как раз ддовольно вероятно -- две половинки страны уже существуют отдельно друг от друга, и ЕМНИП общего правительства нет до сих пор

>Северная Ирландия

это просто невероятно -- протестантов, как ни крути, там большинство

>Шотландия

А вот это как раз вполне возможно

"Бій відлунав. Жовто-сині знамена затріпотіли на станції знов"

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От	Аркан
К	Chestnut (19.02.2008 20:53:52)
Дата	19.02.2008 23:03:54

Re: Сколько вообще...

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>>Маловероятно:
>>расспад Бельгии
>
>как раз ддовольно вероятно -- две половинки страны уже существуют отдельно друг от друга, и ЕМНИП общего правительства нет до сих пор

Ну Швейцария так вообще столетиями жила.

>>Северная Ирландия
>
>это просто невероятно -- протестантов, как ни крути, там большинство

Заселим албанскими католиками:)))


>>Шотландия
>
>А вот это как раз вполне возможно

Я так читал, там стороников отделения не очень много? А в Уэльссе, кстати,отмороженные есть?

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От	Presscenter
К	Аркан (19.02.2008 23:03:54)
Дата	20.02.2008 00:40:41

Re: Сколько вообще...

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>Я так читал, там стороников отделения не очень много? А в Уэльссе, кстати,отмороженные есть?

Валлийцы мирный народ. Но не без Новодворских)

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